Officially announced a national emergency. Will emergencies go global? And does the “crown” of Russia threaten? Let's try to figure it out with the help of mathematics and virology.
"Art" and shock
There is no panic in Russia over the coronavirus, but any report of diseased Chinese is still alarming. And on the evening of January 25, an ambulance was called to the Art Moscow Voikovskaya Hotel, where a tourist group from the People's Republic of China stopped. Eight guests have a fever. Mindful of the possible consequences, they immediately called the ambulance. 10 ambulances arrived at the hotel, all those who contacted were taken to the hospital. It quickly became clear that seven Chinese had ARVI, another guest had the flu. Samples at 2019-nCov gave a negative result. Even so, the Rospotrebnadzor department in Moscow established control over other guests.
How to recognize coronavirus symptoms
Normal flight
Scientists from Hong Kong announced the creation of a vaccine against coronavirus
Sanitary control centers in Russia - at border posts. At the same time, airplanes from China continue to fly to all major airports in our country. In Sheremetyevo alone, flights from Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou are regularly served. The only limitation is that the aircraft from Guangzhou used to make an intermediate landing in Wuhan, in the very region where the mass infection began. Since last Friday, Wuhan is closed for departures. But this decision was made in China, the Russian aviation authorities did not introduce any prohibitions. We decided to meet the board from Guangzhou to find out what the mood was in China, and even in Sheremetyevo. Visually, everything is calm at the airport. Neither campaign posters, nor people in chemical protection suits. Only Chinese tourists wear masks of different styles and colors. Some people are hiding behind matter and some airport staff. At the same time, from many guests from China, no one shied away. And nosy taxi drivers willingly offer them their services.
Formula of fear
While in Russia there is not a single case of coronavirus infection, and WHO does not introduce a global emergency mode. Is not carelessness? One of the popular bloggers, a Russian trader under the nickname Bemake, made a forecast for the further development of the situation. It was not difficult for him to calculate the coefficients, the speed with which the number of sick and dead is growing, and this made it possible to derive disappointing numbers. If we take into account that on January 19, the news spoke of 62 sick and 2 dead, then by the 26th, Bemake calculated that 1931 people should have become infected and died 62. Regrettably, the trader’s predictions based solely on mathematical proportions were almost justified ... And by February 1, according to his model, the number of cases will reach almost 22 thousand people. A real epidemic?
"Any mathematical models for predicting the epidemiological situation cannot be adequate enough, since they do not take into account many factors: in particular, preventive measures and sanitary and epidemiological control at the borders," Olga Karpova, Head of the Department of Virology, Moscow State University, told RG. The scientist offers a comprehensive approach to the analysis of the situation.
We have already passed
“The coronaviruses are not the first to excite the public,” Olga Karpova recalled. “The first sensational story dates back to 2002-2003, when news of the SARS epidemic appeared. It was caused by SARS-CoV coronavirus. According to official data, 8437 people were infected, 819 of them died. The World Health Organization was concerned that the virus could lead to a global epidemic. However, this did not happen, and the last case of SARS-CoV infection was recorded in 2004. "
The second wave, the source of RG continues, was in 2012, when another type of MERS coronavirus spread. Bats served as the reservoir, as in the case of SARS, but the virus was actively transmitted through camels. “However, quickly taken anti-epidemic measures helped stop the epidemic,” Olga Karpova said. In her opinion, the most important thing at this stage is to find out if the virus is transmitted from person to person. For now, we can judge this, since there are cases of infection of doctors who came into contact with patients. But there is no certainty that the doctors were not infected in any other way. “There is no cause for alarm,” says Olga Karpova. “Judging by the statistics, the contagiousness (infection efficiency. - Ed.) Of the virus is not as high as measles. Otherwise, we would already be talking about tens of thousands of cases.”
